We are now half way through 2013 and perhaps a good time to reflect on some predictions that have been made about the IT industry and where the significant changes are likely to be felt over the next 2-3 years. Gartner made a series of predictions in 2012 on the changes within IT. When interviewing CIOs I (Philip Fanthom) always enquire as to what they believe should be the priority for an IT department for the next 3 years. Recently the answer has centred around ‘cloud recoil’ and the fall out of cloud security.

Below are Gartner’s IT predictions:

At year-end 2016, more than 50 percent of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud.

With the current global economy facing financial pressure, organizations are compelled to reduce operational costs and streamline their efficiency. Responding to this imperative, it is estimated that more than 20 percent of organizations have already begun to selectively store their customer-sensitive data in a hybrid architecture that is a combined deployment of their on-premises solution with a private and/or public cloud provider in 2011.

By 2015, 35 percent of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department's budget. Next generation digital enterprises are being driven by a new wave of business managers and individual employees who no longer need technology to be contextualized for them by an IT department. These people are demanding control over the IT expenditure required to evolve the organization within the confines of their roles and responsibilities. CIOs will see some of their current budget simply reallocated to other areas of the business. In other cases, IT projects will be redefined as business projects with line-of-business managers in control.

By 2014, 20 percent of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas. Political, environmental, economic and supply chain risks are causing many companies serving the U.S. market to shift sources of supply from Asia to the Americas, including Latin America, Canada and the U.S. Except in cases where there is a unique manufacturing process or product intellectual property, most products are candidates to be relocated. Escalating oil prices globally and rising wages in many offshore markets, plus the hidden costs associated with offshore outsourcing, erode the cost savings that didn't account for critical supply chain factors, such as inventory carrying costs, lead times, demand variability and product quality.                  

Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities. As IT delivery methods meet the demand for the use of cloud services and employee-owned devices, new software vulnerabilities will be introduced, and innovative attack paths will be developed by financially motivated attackers. The combination of new vulnerabilities and more targeted attacks will lead to continued growth in bottom-line financial impact because of successful cyber attacks.

By 2015, the prices for 80 percent of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge. While cloud operators can make strategic decisions about locations, tax subsidies are no long-term answer to managing costs, and investments in renewable-energy sources remain costly. Some cloud data center operators already include an energy surcharge in their pricing package, and Gartner analysts believe this trend will rapidly escalate to include the majority of operators — driven by competitive pressures and a "me too" approach. Business and IT leaders and procurement specialists must expect to see energy costs isolated and included as a variable element in future cloud service contracts.

Through 2015, more than 85 percent of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage. Current trends in smart devices and growing Internet connectivity are creating significant increases in the volume of data available, but the complexity, variety and velocity with which it is delivered combine to amplify the problem substantially beyond the simple issues of volume implied by the popular term "big data." Collecting and analyzing the data is not enough — it must be presented in a timely fashion so that decisions are made as a direct consequence that have a material impact on the productivity, profitability or efficiency of the organization. Most organizations are ill prepared to address both the technical and management challenges posed by big data; as a direct result, few will be able to effectively exploit this trend for competitive advantage. Article Source: gartner.com


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